Monday, October 26, 2009

It was an impressive

It was an impressive week for forex trading sentiment-based forecasts, as our SSI-based currency systems went heavily short the US Dollar and Japanese Yen ahead of the pair’s sharp drops through recent trade. A more recent moderation in US Dollar and Japanese Yen losses has meant that forex trading crowd sentiment is far less one-sided, and our forecasts have accordingly become less clear. Traders aggressively bought the US currency as it continued to decline, and our contrarian trading systems presciently faded sentiment extremes on the USD’s tumble. Some of those systems have now covered US Dollar short exposure, and we await sentiment clarification before taking aggressive stances on all but a select few currency pairs.

The dollar made the bearish

The dollar made the bearish break to new lows for the year last Monday, but it was not catalyzed by any specific fundamental driver nor supported by a meaningful trend in risk appetite. To reverse the currency's fortunes and potentially change its future, a true bull trend requires an underlying fundamental driver, meaning either a break the dollar's ties to investor sentiment (as a safe haven currency) or a collapse of risk appetite.

Overdraft fees accounted

Overdraft fees accounted for more than 75 percent of service fees charged on customer deposits, the paper cited Moebs as saying.

Last year the U.S. Federal Reserve approved credit card rules to curb "unfair" practices such as surprise fees and interest rate hikes, and new mortgage lending rules are expected this summer.

It is also mulling rules to give bank customers the chance to opt out of overdraft schemes that can involve fees.

Banks in the United States

Banks in the United States are poised to make $38.5 billion in customer overdraft fees this year, the Financial Times said, citing research by Moebs Services.

A large portion of the revenue is likely to come from the most financially stretched consumers, according to the paper.

It said the research showed that many banks have increased charges on overdrafts and credit cards in order to boost profits.

The median bank overdraft fee rose this year by one dollar to $26, the paper said, citing the Moebs data.

"Banks are returning to a fee-driven model and overdraft fees are the mother lode," Mike Moebs, the company's founder was quoted by the paper as saying.

The Indonesia Composite

The Indonesia Composite Index, which extended gains following the announcement of the economic data, ended the day at 2,389.56. It earlier touched 2,394.32, the highest level since June 2008. Bumi Resources, the coutry's biggest coal producer, surged 7.6 percent, and the largest listed plantation firm, Astra Agro Lestari, jumped 9.3 percent. Malaysia's index edged up 0.3 percent, Thailand's inched down 0.07 percent, the Philippine index rose 2.4 percent and Vietnam's climbed 2.2 percent. In Bangkok, optimism that the economy of the United States had got over the worst and that the Thai economy would recover later this year bolstered market sentiment, Stock Exchange of Thailand chairman Pakorn Malakul Na Ayudhya said on Monday. "There are signs that the Thai economy has touched bottom and this has led to expectations that Thai GDP will recover from the fourth quarter," Pakorn told reporters. "Normally, the performance of the stock market leads actual economic data by about six months," he said. Thailand's SET index gained as much as 1 percent earlier to touch its highest since Sept. 15, 2008. It rose 3.1 percent last week, its fourth straight week of gains. Among the losers, Banpu, Thailand's top coal miner, dropped 3.3 percent, falling back after an early surge to a 13-month high. After the close, it reported a 73 percent jump in second-quarter earnings, better than expected, due to higher coal prices and strong income from a power plant. Seventh-biggest lender Siam City Bank shot up 5.6 percent on reports the Finance Ministry was likely to allow foreign investors to buy more than 49 percent of the bank. In Kuala Lumpur, gainers were led by a 1.3 percent rise in Axiata Group and a 0.5 percent gain in KL Kepong while Malayan Banking lost 0.3 percent. In the Philippines, Manila Electric surged 11.7 percent after San Miguel Corp said it was keen to take a majority stake by buying 13.4 percent from the Lopez family in a deal that could be worth as much as $840 million. In Hanoi, advancers were led by a 4 percent rise in steel maker Hoa Phat and a 4.6 percent gain in real estate developer Sudico. See for a Vietnam stock report Singapore was closed for a market holiday. ($1=34.00 Baht) (Additional reporting by Saranya Suksomkij in Bangkok; Editing by Alan Raybould) ((viparat.jantraprapaweth@thomsonreuters.com; +66 2 648 9733; Reuters Messaging: viparat.jantraprapaweth.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) FACTORS TO WATCH: Malaysia June factory output down 9.6 pct on yr Affin upgrades Malaysian banking stocks to overweight Citi ups Preuksa Real Estate target price Manila's San Miguel may raise stake in Meralco Palm up 2.0 pct as stock data outweighs poor exports Indonesia Q2 GDP growth slowest in six years For South East Asia Hot Stock reports, click; SOUTHEAST ASIAN STOCK MARKETS Change on the day Market Current Prev Close Pct Move Singapore 2549.35 2549.35 (closed) Kuala Lumpur 1188.00 1184.88 +0.26 Bangkok 643.75 644.20 -0.07 Jakarta 2389.56 2349.13 +1.72 Manila 2850.58 2782.98 +2.43 Ho Chi Minh 491.20 480.65 +2.19 Change on year Market Current End prev yr Pct Move Singapore 2549.35 1761.56 +44.72 (closed) Kuala Lumpur 1188.00 876.75 +35.50 Bangkok 643.75 449.96 +43.07 Jakarta 2389.56 1355.40 +76.30 Manila 2850.58 1872.85 +52.21 Ho Chi Minh 491.20 315.62 +55.63 Stock Market Volume (shares) Market Current Volume Average Volume 90 days Kuala Lumpur 96,369,600 387,907,947 Bangkok 4,719,548 3,762,440 Jakarta 15,914,163,500 8,783,816,050 Ho Chi Minh 48,041 44,279 ASIA-PACIFIC STOCK MARKETS: Pan-Asia........ Japan....... S.Korea... S.E. Asia....... Hong Kong... Taiwan.... Australia/NZ.... India....... China..... OTHER MARKETS: Wall Street.... Gold ....... Currency.. Eurostocks..... Oil ........ JP bonds... ADR Report ..... LME metals. US bonds.. Stocks News US.. Stocks News Europe DIARIES & DATA: IPO diary & data Asia earnings diary U.S. earnings diary European diary Singapore diary Wall Street Week Ahead Eurostocks Week Ahead TOP NEWS: For top Asian company news, double click on: U.S.

Foreign exchange

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With this type of forex dollar exchange

With this type of forex dollar exchange, you can purchase currencies from around the world. A common currency change is from the US dollar to the European currency. Yet, other countries, especially developing countries can be even more profitable to invest in to make a profit. It takes a lot of time and study to learn how to invest in this type of market. The forex market is much like the stock market, but instead of trading stocks and bonds for companies, you are trading currencies from countries around the world.

When investing in forex, dollar changes like this should be complete using a high quality piece of software. Many online programs are available to help you learn how to trade with forex as well as to help you make the trades happen. When you use these systems and software products, there is likely to a fee to use them. Yet, for someone that makes a sizable amount of money off the forex dollar exchange, chances are good it is well worth the investment.

Forex dollar exchange is a great way for the investment savvy person to make a sizable return on their investment. Yet, it is one of the most challenging of all methods and therefore needs to be complete with caution.

There are two types of forex accounts

There are two types of forex accounts; a mini forex account and a regular forex account. Mini forex trading is an excellent way for small investors to learn about and take part in forex trading and with the most forex brokers offering a leverage of 100:1, mini forex trading will allow you to control a $10,000 currency position with a deposit of only $100. Mini forex trading is a great way to get a feel for forex trading and learn the tricks and skills needed to succeed without having to go to great expense. Why not try mini forex trading now and see just how easy it is to profit with forex trading.

Forex trading is the new way to make money through online currency trading. With a worldwide market and over 60 currencies for you to trade there has never been an easier way to make money online.

Forex currency trading

Forex currency trading is done is pairs and these are known as crosses. These pairs are always against the US dollar and the main crosses you will find when trading forex are the USD/EUR and the USD/GDP. The most popular crosses are known as majors and these can make forex traders great profits. Currencies change on a regular basis and are based on the how the world financial markets see the value of the currencies. You can sell or buy these currencies and forex brokers do not charge commission fees.

make money onlineForex trading until recently was reserved for banks and other large financial industries but thanks to the power of the internet and online currency trading, forex has now become feasible for everyday people. The forex market has become the largest trading market in the world and each day there is an estimated turnover of over $1.5 trillion dollars. Another added bonus is available 24 hours a day, 5 days a week unlike most other markets that operate on an 8 hour day. This means that people wishing to trade forex can do so at any given time.

Level to maintain

EURUSD closed @ 14085 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was 30 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 25 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 2. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the price is Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways Down while 14230 holds and Daily Trend is also Sideways Down while 14450 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy with a Downside bias. The Price Patterns on the Hourly is creeping higher but the upside is limited and expect the price to break the prior low @ 14005 , on the 5 min is along the Channel but the upside should be capped to 14170-14230 level to maintain a bearish outlook. Conservative traders should look to SHORT on pull back near 14170-14230 level or strictly trade only at Precise Traders Report levels. Aggressive traders look to do the same with 14005-13965 levels having in mind for potential profit targets.

USDJPY closed

USDJPY closed @ 9455 which was BELOW the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 30 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 30 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 1. The Hourly Oscillators are Turning Bullish and the price is Within the MA, so the Bears have to be CAUTIOUS. Hourly Trend is Sideways Down while 9535 holds and Daily Trend is Down while 9670 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy with a Downside bias. The Price Patterns on the Hourly is creeping higher but the signals are not clear, on the 5 min is along the Channel but the upside should be capped to 9535-70 level in order to maintain our bearish outlook. Conservative traders should look to be Sidelined or strictly trade only at Precise Traders Report levels. Aggressive traders should look to do the same or SHORT Cautiously on pull back near 9535- 70 for a quick profit.

Fundamental News for the Euro vs Dollar

Although there is a detailed analysis of the fundamental news for this pair on the main euro to dollar site today traders should focus on the German ZEW Sentiment Index, a diffusion index based on a survey of German institutional investors and analysts. In fact the survey asks around 350 German institutional investors and analysts to rate a 6 month eonomic outlook for Germany. It is considered a leading indicator of economic health as the participants are considered highly qualified by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity. If the actual is better than forecast then we can expect the Euro to benefit accordingly.

My trading suggestion for today is to wait for the release of the German ZEW and if, as expected, it comes in better than expected to look to profit from an upturn in the Euro.

Forex Technical Analysis for the Euro vs Dollar

Forex Technical Analysis for the Euro vs Dollar

Yesterday's relatively wide spread down bar on the euro vs dollar chart was significant for two reasons: firstly prices opened gapped down from Friday's close suggesting that the bearish sentiment which is currently evident may have some impetus. Secondly prices closed below the 40 day moving average which would tend to reinforce this view. However, this analysis has to be counterbalanced against the performance the equity markets which although have seen dramatic falls in China and an almost 2.5% fall in the S&P500 has not really translated as strongly as we would have expected into dollar strength but appears simply to expanded the euro vs dollar trading range to between USD1.38 and USD1.43. Whilst this expanded range will provide trading opportunities for swing traders and scalpers, longer term position trading may prove difficult and may have to wait until there is a clear and sustained breakout either side of the current range.

Recent commentary

Recent commentary was that “the entire rally from 1.0782 has now been retraced. However, the drop below 1.0782 may be wave Y in a complex W-X-Y corrective decline from 1.3068. Daily RSI has turned up from oversold (which was also divergent with the low). The USDCAD rally has picked up steam and cleared initial resistance at 1.0940. The advance has the characteristics of an impulse and the decline has stalled at the 61.8% of the rally. If the USDCAD is to turn up, then this is a good place for it to do so.” The pair did turn up and price has now cleared 1.1108. A 3rd wave is probably underway from 1.0791. Dips should be bought against that level. 1.0972-1.1027 is a support zone.

HPQ – Hewlett-Packard

HPQ – Hewlett-Packard Co. – The global technology company has experienced a more than 1.5% decline in shares today to $43.26 ahead of its third-quarter earnings release, which is scheduled to follow the closing bell on Tuesday afternoon. At least one investor was seen bracing for bad news or at least for continued declines in the price of the underlying. The trader established a ratio put position by purchasing 5,000 puts at the August 42.5 strike for approximately 89 cents apiece, spread against the sale of 10,000 puts at the lower August 40 strike for 25 cents per contract. The net cost of the bearish transaction amounts to 39 cents and yields maximum potential profits of 2.11 if the stock slips to $40.00 by expiration this Friday. Shares must fall about 3% from the current price in order for the trader to begin to amass profits beneath the breakeven point at $42.11. Maximum profits of $1,055,000 will be retained by the investor if the stock falls to $40.00 and the lower strike puts remain out-of-the-money. If shares were to slip lower than $40.00, the trader may have shares of the underlying put to him at expiration given the ratio of 2 short put options to each long contract in his possession. Investor uncertainty has marched steadily higher throughout the day from 33% this morning to the current reading of 37% -- a sign of building tension ahead of the firm’s third-quarter profit report.

ALGN – Align Technology, Inc. – Investors in the maker of the Invisalign system are surely all smiles today as shares have exploded more than 30.5% higher to $13.20. The manufacturer of Invisalign, which is a proprietary method for correcting the misalignment of teeth, has nearly breached its 52-week high of $13.74 on today’s rally. Positive news regarding a settlement over patent litigation involving ALGN and Danaher Corp.’s Ormco unit, prompted one analyst at Northcoast Research to raise the stock to ‘neutral’ from ‘sell’. Bullish traders, hoping for continued gains in the stock, purchased approximately 1,000 calls at the September 15 strike price for an average premium of 23 cents apiece. Shares of ALGN must climb an additional 15% in order for call-buyers to begin to amass profits at the breakeven price of $15.23. Additional near-term optimism was observed at the August 10 strike price where traders shed 1,000 puts for 21 cents each. Other investors appeared to be banking gains on the rally by selling about 2,000 calls at the now in-the-money August 12.5 strike for a premium of about 80 cents. We note that 15,656 option contracts exchanged hands on Align Technology during the trading session, which comprises more than 53% of the existing open interest on the stock of 29,119 lots.

The Canadian trade balance

The Canadian trade balance registered a slim $55-million deficit in June, down from a $1.0-billion deficit in May. Exports rose $0.7 billion or 2.3%, driven by energy products (+$0.8 billion) and industrial goods and materials (+$0.4 billion). This was partially offset by declines in machinery and equipment and automotive products.
Imports sagged $0.4 billion, owing mostly to machinery and equipment (-$0.5 billion) and industrial goods and materials (-$0.3 billion). In real terms, the trade deficit shrank $0.5 billion to $4.5 billion thanks to an 11% increase in energy exports.

Manufacturing shipments outdid expectations in June with a 1.9% rise, 80% of which was due to the aerospace products sector, where sales rebounded (+61%) from an abnormally low level the previous month. The record surge on the month of 20.5% in the volume of new orders was particularly impressive.

United States

United States – Productivity in Q2 jumped 6.4%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 5.5%. Unit labor costs diminished 5.8% while hourly compensation climbed 0.2%.

The U.S. trade deficit rose from $26.0 billion to $27.0 billion in June, short of the consensus estimate of $28.7 billion. The swell was due to a $3.9-billion increase in the petroleum deficit, driven by higher oil prices. The deficit excluding petroleum retreated from $12.7 billion to $9.8 billion, an 11-year low.

The FOMC kept its target range for the Fed funds rate unchanged this week at 0% to 0.25%. The Fed clarified its plans for the Fed Treasury purchases: Only the $300 billion previously committed will be spent and the program will expire by the end of October. In our opinion, the target range will need to be adjusted upward, possibly by yearend, for the sake of the Fed’s balance sheet.

U.S. retail sales flagged 0.1% in July, for a first setback in three months. However, the underlying trend is not as bad as this might suggest. Sales excluding gas stations and grocery stores, a better indicator of consumer discretionary spending, were actually up 0.2% for a third monthly increase in a row.

U.S. headline CPI was flat in July while core CPI rose 0.1%. Year-over-year headline CPI slipped to -2.1% from - 1.4% while core inflation slowed to 1.5% from 1.7% a month earlier. However, the year-over-year headline CPI has now probably reached its trough: Price momentum has shifted upward, as evidenced by the annualized 6-month rate of change back in positive territory.

Ana is a tropical depression whose current track going up the gulf side of the Florida coast whose track theoretically could and may be more of a threat to oil production but that really depends on the strength of the storm which at this time though uncertain seems to be less of a threat. The National Hurricane center says that Ana is moving at an uncertain but fast track. The storm is tightly clustered for the next 36 hours or so and in is expected that Ana will move over Hispaniola. Then the storm’s, “dynamical guidance will weaken and bring the remnants toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico or Florida.” But it is possible that the storm may fizzle out over Hispaniola and not become an issue.

Then there is Hurricane Bill that looks like it will go up the East-Coast and miss the key oil producing Gulf completely. Though the storm could change direction the market seems like it will not become an issue.

So if the storms are not an issue then the economy will be. Stocks are concerned about more bank failures and the fact that Japan’s economy grew less than estimated. Stocks in Asia and Europe fell as the US dropped last week. As far as an important indicator of future energy demand, traders may focus on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Index. Traders are looking for the first expansion in New York manufacturing in a year and if they do not get it, the energy complex may feel the brunt of the disappointment.

Start your week off right by getting the latest breaking business news on the Fox Business Network where you can see me every day. And it might be time for you to trade! If you are ready call me at 800-935-6487 or email at Pflynn@pfgbest.com. Call for intraday entry and exits! See all the services that PFGBest can offer you. Metals, Forex, managed accounts you name it!

We're short Sept crude from apprx 7150 – lower stop to 7050!

Sell September heating oil 19300 - stop 19700.

Sell September RBOB 20550 –lower stop 20900.

Sell September natural gas at 470 - stop 480.

Gas production in the Gulf

Where did all the economic optimism go? Just a week ago we were celebrating the end of the recession and now we look like we are running for cover. Banks have been failing like crazy yet the Colonial Bank failure late Friday afternoon, on top of sinking consumer confidence and retail sales, was a reminder that while the economy is on the mend we still have some significant problems ahead.

Weak demand for oil and ample supply in storage means that oil is less concerned with the three storms that have developed in the Atlantic. With global spare production capacity at the ready and lessons learned from past hurricanes, the market at this point is less concerned about the hurricane threats than it has been in the past. Of course at the same time these storms may not be a threat to oil production anyway. Ana, Bill and Claudette are the names of these storms. Claudette is a tropical storm that has already hit the Florida coast. The National Hurricane Center says that the center of Claudette was 25 miles west of Panama City, Florida, at 10 p.m. Central Daylight Time, the center said.
The storm was moving northwest at 12 mph with winds of about 50 mph, the latest advisory said.
Claudette has not impacted any oil or gas production in the Gulf.

Within our firm

Within our firm, Charles is the major proponent of the Schumpeterian view, and this thinking was apparent in his and Steve's recent ad hoc, A V-Shaped Recovery in Profits. Due to the quick reflexes that new technologies allow, corporates are managing their cash flow better than ever. Rarely ever, for instance, have companies (ex-financials) remained in such strong positions during a recession, which is yet another reason why we believe that capital spending, rather than consumption, will spark the recovery.

Indeed, the scale at which corporates have been able to cut costs and return to profitability, has laid the groundwork for a deflationary boom of epic proportions (which would be a major surprise for those who fear an easy-money inflationary nightmare). Of course, there is a major threat to this deflationary-boom scenario-and that is the increased government intervention we are seeing in most corners of the world. If government intervention manages to kill off return on investment capital, as it did in the 1930s, then the current opportunity will go up in smoke. Regular readers know we tend to err on the side of optimism; at this point we still hold out hope that a major lurch to a big-government era can be resisted-as exemplified, for example, by the unexpectedly strong fight we are seeing against the health-care bill, or the ability of so many US financials to pay back their debt to the US Treasury, thus lowering the extent of government influence on their business decisions. Thus, in our view, a period of deflationary boom is the likeliest scenario, and investors should focus on sectors and countries that will see the largest resurgence in capital spending.

This week I offer you two short pieces

This week I offer you two short pieces for your Outside the Box Reading Pleasure. The first is from my friends at GaveKal and is part of their daily letter. They address the real difference between those who think we will have a consumer led recovery (Keynesian) and those who think we will have a corporate profit led recovery (classical economics or Schumpeterian). This is actually a very important debate and distinction.

We are hearing concerns, from some clients and friends, that the brutal corporate cost-cutting seen in the wake of the subprime crisis will delay the recovery, because this trend is killing the US consumer. In other words, how can one spend if he has lost his job or fears as much, or has seen his work hours drastically reduced, taken a pay cut, or expects his company pension system is about to implode? For us, this all boils down to a crucial question: do we need consumption to pick up in order to achieve a rebound in growth? The answer to this question very much depends on whether one accepts a Keynesian view of the economic process, or a Schumpeterian (or classical) view. We hope our readers forgive us, but we are now going to have to get a tad theoretical....

The situation is clearly

The situation is clearly better than it was at the 2007 economic peak, where probable 10-year economic growth dropped to the lowest level in the recorded data, but again, the likely growth rate is still below 3% annually over the next decade even given the economic slack we observe.

Aside from a gradual recovery of the "output gap" created by the current downturn, there is no structural reason to expect economic growth to be a major driver of investment returns in the years ahead. With valuations now elevated above historical norms, there is no reason to expect strong total returns on an investment basis either.

The primary element that is favorable at present is speculation – excitement over the prospect that the recession is over. Investors are presently anticipating the good things that have historically accompanied the end of recessions (strong investment returns and sustained economic growth), without having in hand the factors that have made those things possible (excellent valuations and a large output gap coupled with strong structural growth in potential GDP).

The blue line presents actual growth

The blue line presents actual growth in real U.S. GDP in the decade following each point in time. This line ends a decade ago for obvious reasons. The red line presents the 10-year projected growth of "potential" real GDP. This line is much smoother, because the measure of potential GDP is not concerned with fluctuations in economic growth, only the amount of output that the economy is capable of producing at relatively full utilization of resources.

One of the things to notice immediately is that because of demographics and other factors, projected 10-year growth in potential GDP has never been lower. This is not based on credit conditions or other prevailing concerns related to the recent economic downturn. Rather, it is a structural feature of the U.S. economy here, and has important implications for the sort of economic growth we should expect in the decade ahead.

The green line is something of a hybrid of the two data series. Here, I've calculated the 10-year GDP growth that would result if the current level of GDP at any given time was to grow to the level of potential GDP projected for the following decade. This line takes the "output gap" into effect, since a depressed current level of GDP requires greater subsequent growth to achieve future potential GDP. Notice here that even given the decline we saw in GDP last year, the likely growth in GDP over the coming decade is well under 3% annually - a level that we have typically seen in periods of tight capacity (that were predictably followed by sub-par subsequent economic growth), not at the beginning stages of a recovery.

Stocks are currently overvalued

Stocks are currently overvalued, which – if the recession is indeed over – makes the present situation an outlier. Unfortunately, since valuations and subsequent returns go hand in hand, the likelihood is that the probable returns over the coming years will also be a disappointingly low outlier. In short, we should not assume, even if the recession is ending, that above average multi-year returns will follow.

That conclusion is also supported by another driver of market returns in the years following U.S. recessions: prospective GDP growth. Every quarter, the U.S. Department of Commerce releases an estimate of what is known as "potential GDP," as well as estimates of future potential GDP for the decade ahead. These estimates are based on the U.S. capital stock, projected labor force growth, population trends, productivity, and other variables. As the Commerce Department notes, potential GDP isn't a ceiling on output, but is instead a measure of maximum sustainable output.

The comparison between actual and potential GDP is frequently referred to as the "output gap." Generally, U.S. recessions have created a significant output gap, as the recent one has done. Combined with demographic factors like strong expected labor force growth, this output gap has resulted in above-average real GDP growth in the years following the recession.

The chart below shows the 10-year growth rates in actual and potential GDP since 1949 (the first year that data are available).

Two factors have made

Historically, two factors have made important contributions to stock market returns in the years following U.S. recessions. One of these that we review frequently is valuation. Very simply, depressed valuations have historically been predictably followed by above-average total returns over the following 7-10 year period (though not necessarily over very short periods of time), while elevated valuations have been predictably followed by below-average total returns.

Thus, when we look at the dividend yield of the S&P 500 at the end of U.S. recessions since 1940, we find that the average yield has been about 4.25% (the yield at the market's low was invariably even higher).
Presently, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is about half that, at 2.14%, placing the S&P 500 price/dividend ratio at about double the level that is normally seen at the end of U.S. recessions (even presuming the recession is in fact ending, of which I remain doubtful). At the March low, the yield on the S&P 500 didn't even crack 3.65%. Similarly, the price-to-revenue ratio on the S&P 500 at the end of recessions has been about 40% lower than it is today, and has been lower still at the actual bear market trough. The same is true of valuations in relation to normalized earnings, even though the market looked reasonably cheap in March based on the ratio of the S&P 500 to 2007 peak earnings (which were driven by profit margins about 50% above the historical norm).

The pair resumed trading

The pair resumed trading above 50% correction after gaining enough upside momentum from the previous 61.8% correction level at 94.10; where we can see the pair heading towards retesting previously breached support levels which have now become strong resistance levels. Momentum indicators are assuring the expected upside correction, where ADX is losing its downside strength with the possibility of forming a weak upside direction. All these signs are making us favor the upside correctional move for today which will prevail as long as 94.10 remains intact. Nevertheless, this upside move is merely correctional for the pair to gather more downside momentum to resume the bearish short term wave.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 92.10 and the key resistance at 96.85.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.


Support : 94.10 93.70 93.15 92.75 92.10
Resistance : 95.10 95.10 96.00 96.85 97.25

Since the pair breached

Since the pair breached 1.4110 to the downside, the confirmation was provided for the classical bearish pattern, shown in the side image above. This technical pattern targets 100% extension at 1.3965 levels, where we see the pair now retesting the breached neckline for this pattern. The descending channel that pattern has constructed, with its resistance level at 1.4275, will keep the downside wave valid as far as trading is intact below it, also affected by the 50 MA at 1.4230. Thus, today’s headings are to the downside but stochastic is showing the pair is attempting to move to the upside, yet if that was seen it will only be a correctional move to gather more bearish momentum to continue the move to the downside.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3840 and the key resistance at 1.4460.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4720 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.

Support : 1.4070 1.4020 1.3990 1.3965 1.3930
Resistance : 1.4110 1.4185 1.4230 1.4275 1.4315
Recommendation : Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.4100 To 1.3965 and stop loss above 1.4185, might be appropriate.

Percent against the Japanese

The yen fell on Tuesday, snapping back from its highest levels this month against the dollar and euro and retreating against commodity-linked currencies as Asian share markets steadied after losses.

Eyes were on stock markets after Monday's volatile session in which shares in Shanghai .SSEC lost 5.8 percent and currencies associated with risk-trades, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, shed more than 1 percent.

The euro, Aussie and kiwi dollars all rose about half a percent against the Japanese currency and clawed back some lost ground against the dollar as investors covered short positions built in the sell-off the previous day, dealers said.

"Gains in yen crosses today were a recovery from excessive losses the previous day, rather than investors being actively engaged in risk trading," said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Trust & Banking.

Schoolcraft in Livonia

March will be our last meeting of the year. We have had only 15 renewals and the board decided to suspend operation for the rest of the year. The Oakland REIA has started a group for advanced investors and I am encouraging all DOLLARS members who want to meet with experienced investors to give the Oakland Group a try. They are just starting up their advanced sub group so in all fairness we should give them a couple months and see if it is a forum that our members enjoy. Since DOLLARS is suspending they will be meeting on the 3rd Thursday of the month. Check out their web site at REIA of Oakland.com.

I want to remind everyone of the Institute of Real Estate Management Annual Trade Show on March 18th. It is held at the Burton Manor on Schoolcraft in Livonia. It is a good place to find vendors that cater to the rental property business. The show is free.

Our meeting this month will be an open format. This is the time to get your questions answered by the other attendees. I want to hear from all as to what worked and didn’t work for you last year, what you learned from last years experiences, what problems you arJustify Fulle having now, and what course of action you are taking now. The open format meetings

Some resistance

Last week ended with a bullish engulfing pattern (daily chart), indicating stregnth to the upside early this week. The start of trading this week has confirmed this as the rate pushes above recent swing highs.

Target on the upside is 95.20 with some resistance expected in the 95 area.

Minor support is expected at 94.65, 94.35 and 94.20-94.15 on corrections.

Some minor support

Some minor support and resistance levels have developed. A break of those levels is likely to set the tone for the day.

A rise above 1.4360, especially if confirmed by a push above 1.4375, indicates a further move higher. Resistance is expected near 1.4400, 1.4440-1.4450, and by 1.4530.

A drop below 1.4320 will gravitate towards 1.4300. If it holds up well, expect movement back towards 1.4360. Support beyond 1.4300 is 1.4280-1.4270, 1.4200 and 1.4160.

Our outlook for the present remains

Our outlook for the present remains relatively unchanged: the recent action has rejected the bears case for a larger correction lower here in risk appetite and all that entails in a stronger USD and JPY. Nevertheless, recent action has shown that the range may hold if we allow for a bit of slippage. So we could see yet another attempt to new extremes that has been typical of the action both ways (the market trying to get a new move started, only to see that move rejected). We prefer to be on the look out for a reversal at any time rather than boarding the risk train at this time.

Dollars a barrel

The pound has traded sharply weaker vs. the Euro - apparently on the continued fall out from the BoE's King and the other two MPC members who also voted for an even large expansion in the asset purchase program. 0.8700 is a critical level in EURGBP. GBPUSD, meanwhile, remains tied up in a tight range.

USDCAD is punching through to new lows today on the strong (if ancient....) retail sales data from June and more importantly the general risk appetite picture and strong rise in oil prices, which are now challenging the highs for the year around 75 dollars a barrel.

UK Aug. GfK Consumer


  • UK Aug. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - UK Confidence has bounced about halfway back to where it came from before the crisis.
  • Japan Jul. Jobless Rate, CPI, Household Spending - the big Friday batch of data that arrives in the last week of every month. Markets more interested in upcoming Aug. 30 election and the direction in risk appetite - particularly in the long bond.
  • UK Q2 GDP - 2nd estimate
  • EuroZone Aug. Confidence Data
    Canada Q2 Current Account
  • US Jul. Personal Income/Spending - spending levels are back to unchanged on a month-to-month basis, the moving average in incomes is of more concern - especially with so few still working...
  • US Jul. PCE deflator/core - the core price index is a few tenths of a percent from 50 year lows - are we headed there?
  • US Aug. Final University of Michigan Confidence - the ugly initial reading touched off a brief swoon in risk appetite before it recovered. Confidence matters! President Obama's approval ratings are also weakening, though that could be a symptom of the highly controversial healthcare reform issue.

New Zealand Jul

  • New Zealand Jul. Trade Balance - the high-flying kiwi is the country's worst enemy with its reliance on commodity exports, especially with still relatively depressed commodity prices
  • Germany Aug. CPI - no signs of inflation just yet...ECB also more cautious than in cycles past on the prospects for recovery
  • US Q2 GDP - 2nd revision. The US Q2 GDP looked much better - but a lot of that improvement was driven by anemic consumption that brought down import levels. Is reduced trade due to reduced consumption a sustainable path to GDP growth, we ask rhetorically...
  • US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - last week a disappointment. Another disappointing reading is certainly cause for concern for the bulls, but as we have said - wait till late September to get more significance form these weekly figures.

Germany Aug

  • Germany Aug. IFO - much like the US confidence numbers, this important survey, which normally correlates well with the equity indices, has failed to rally anywhere near as much as risk appetite in general, suggesting a disconnect in the real state of expectations and the "supposed" state as expressed in the stock market.
  • US Jul. Durable Goods Orders - a volatile figure, this one has recovered fully after near record breaking weakness during the fall/winter meltdown. The year on year comparisons remind us where we came from however: ex transportation durable goods ran at a -22.2% clip for the June numbers.
  • US Jul. New Home Sales - the disparity between the weak recovery in New Home Sales and the strong bounce in Existing home sales shows that activity in existing home sales has a lot to do with bargain prices and distressed sales and the fed tax credit for first time buyers that expires December 1. New Home Sales are a better indicator of the state of housing.
  • US Crude Oil and Product Supplies - this has become a more interesting number than usual after last week's enormous drop in inventories and with crude oil trading close to the highs for the year. Supplies are still plentiful relative to historic norms.

GDP figures

  • Final Q2 GDP figures from Germany - no change expected to 0.3% QoQ initial reading. Positive growth, but still down over -7% YoY
  • Switzerland SNB's Hildebrand and Jordan to speak
  • US Jun. CaseShiller/S&P500 House Price Index - the data is a bit old for this survey...signs are that prices are stabilizing, but delinquencies are still rising and 30% or more of mortgage holders are under water (owe more than their houses are worth). Any talk of a real housing recovery is impossible.
  • US Aug. Consumer Confidence - one of the real indicators that suggest stock markets should tread carefully. Confidence is still very low - and the average consumer still has a lot of deleveraging to do.
  • US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence - the most leading of the confidence surveys, though it garners less attention than it should

Rest of the week

The risk-seekers wheeled out fresh funds to plow into the market on Friday, with rather predictable results across markets: stocks and commodities up and bonds down. This translated to USD and JPY falling in the currency market, and the commodity currencies, Scandies and Euro catching a bid. While the response is no surprise, it is perhaps worth noting that the response in the USD is weaker than it has been in the past. For example, the S&P500 peaked at around 90 in early June, when EURUSD peaked out around 1.4335. Now we've seen a spectacular 19% rally from the July trough to current levels over 1025 and the EURUSD is trading at about the same level. The more risk-loving AUD has been a stronger performer, but is still up less than 2% above it's June high despite the massive rally in stocks. For Aussie, it is clear that an interruption in the former Chinese equity market parabola on all of the troubling rumblings about a potential Chinese asset bubble and the authorities attempts to deal with it, have dampened enthusiasm somewhat. Still, the bulls are still trying to bid the currency up for new highs versus the market since the mid-August peak and possibly challenge the pivotal 0.8500/20 area.

This week's economic calendar is relatively light. The highlights this week include the US confidence numbers on Tuesday and Friday and the German IFO on Wednesday. Here's a brief run-down of the salient events for the rest of the week:

Tokyo market

Tokyo - The Tokyo market ended morning trading lower Tuesday as investors sold shares to lock in profits from the previous day's gains.

After rising more than 3 per cent Monday, the key Nikkei 225 dipped 82.86 points, or 0.78 per cent, to 10,498.19 The broader-based Topix index was also down 5.02 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 965.25.

at 9 am (0000 GMT), the dollar traded at 94.39-44 yen, down from Monday's 5 pm quote of 94.95-98 yen.

Taiwan stocks

Taipei - Taiwan stocks closed 2.76 per cent higher on Monday, bolstered by a strong rebound in the US, Europe and across Asia, dealers said.

The main TAIEX index opened sharply higher and extended its gains all the way to close at 6,838.25, up 183.45 points, or 2.76 per cent from Friday's trade.

Dealers said prospects of US economic recovery ignited strong buying in the US and the European markets Friday, encouraging Asian stocks to open higher on Monday.

Early trade

Mumbai, Aug 24 : The Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark 30 share Sensex rose by 289 points in early trade on Monday, extending its gaining streak for the third session in a row.

The increase in the early trade is due to the heavy buying by funds, driven by a firming trend in the global markets.

The Sensex shot up by 289.17 points, to mark 15,530.00 with most of the sectoral indices gaining up to 3.12 per cent. The BSE barometer had gained over 430 points in the past two sessions

Companies have been very aggressive

Sydney - Australian stocks piled on 3 per cent Monday as investors took their lead from a rise on Wall Street and strong company earnings as the reporting season progresses.

The ASX 200 added 135 points, or 3.1 per cent, to 4,426.

"We've certainly had a very good lead in," CommSec economist Craig James said. "Certainly the analysts had been much too gloomy, and the companies have been very aggressive in terms of cutting costs and supporting the bottom line."

Thursday's finish of 2,720.18

Manila - Philippine share prices soared 5.11 per cent Monday on expectations that the local economy was on the road to recovery from the global financial crisis.

The 30-share composite index of the Philippine Stock Exchange gained 139 points to close at 2,859.18, from Thursday's finish of 2,720.18. The market was closed last Friday due to a public holiday.

A total of 2.44 billion shares worth 4.21 billion pesos (87.71 million dollars) were traded.

Gainers swamped losers 97 to 18, while 46 issues were unchanged.

Materials producers

Asian stocks rose, led by commodities producers, as copper and oil prices increased and sales of existing homes in the U. S. surged the most on record, fueling speculation a global economic recovery is strengthening. BHP added 4.1 % to A$38.11 after copper futures climbed 5.1 % in New York on Aug. 21, the steepest gain since June 1. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.1 % to 112.37 as of 10:33 a. m. in Tokyo, with about 14 times as many stocks gaining as retreating. All 10 industry groups climbed, led by materials producers.

Ttock Idea

The markets are giving a strong evidence of a intermediate rally if nifty maintain above 4480. As we were mentioning that 4580 is the level to be watched carefully as markets have corrected very sharply from that point. The outlook still remains cautious as the markets have once again given a breakout on the higher side. Now going forward its necessary that nifty maintains above the 4600 level for some time and consolidates before heading for a of 4880.

STOCK IDEA:

BHEL : (2301) Buy with a stop loss of 2248 for a target of 2375

Political stability at home

Tokyo - Japan's key Nikkei 225 Stock Average surged more than 3 per cent on hopes of economic recovery and political stability at home.

The Nikkei soared 3.12 per cent, or 319.13 points to 10,557.33 during morning trading.

The broader-based Topix index was also up 23.5 points, or 2.48 per cent, at 970.84.

On currency markets at 9 am (0000 GMT), the dollar traded at 94.57-62 yen, up from Friday's 5 pm quote of 93.90-93 yen.

European shares

European Shares traded higher on Friday and managed their highest close since early November. Investor sentiment was lifted by better-than expected U.S. July existing homes sales. The major gainers were the banking stocks.

The closing of the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares came at 2.3 percent at 966.87 points. It should be noted that index apart from being up about 16 percent for the year, has hiked almost 50 percent since reaching a lifetime low in early March.

New York

New York - US stocks rose sharply Friday, capping a positive week of economic and housing sector news, while the price of oil briefly reached a new high for the year.

its highest level of the year and the Standard and Poor's 500 Index reached its highest point since October.

Home resales surged an unexpected 7.2 per cent in July according to the National Association of Realtors, the best monthly gain in 10 years and a sign that the housing crisis which kicked off the wider recession is ending.

Programme announced for August 24

Tokyo - Tokyo stocks fell Friday as the yen's advance against the US dollar led investors to sell mainly export-oriented issues.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 133.1 points, or 1.28 per cent, to 10,250.31.

Automotive shares were among those titles that lost most ground, also affected by the early end of the US "cash for clunkers" car trade-in programme announced for August 24.

Fourth straigh

New York - US stocks rose sharply Thursday, after ailing insurer American International Group Inc (AIG) suggested it would be repaying its government loans and economic indicators again signalled the recession is easing.
The New York-based Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6 per cent in July, the fourth straigh

Movers & Shakers

Market Round Up- The Sensex gained 203 points and closed above the 15K mark. Positive global cues helped the markets to stay on the higher side throughout the day. The NSE Nifty went up 1.35% or 59 points to settle at 4453 after trading in the range of 4492-4394. Today's rally was led by gains in auto, banking, power and IT stocks. The market breadth was positive but the volumes were very lower.

Movers & Shakers

The BSE auto index surged 2.6 %. Maruti, M&M and Hero Honda Motors were the top gainers, up over 3.9 % each.